中国不能依靠2006年的声明避免非礼殡的强制仲裁。 2013-05-04 18:49 #1
Declaration of non-acceptance of any procedure cannot keep China out of UNCLOS arbitration court.
The Chinese article said that since the Chinese government had made a declaration in 2006 under Article 298 to exclude disputes involving sea boundary demarcation from the forcible procedure for dispute resolution, China does not need to submit to arbitration proposal brought by Philippines. Actually this is not entirely correct. Article 298 states, " a State having made such a declaration shall, when such a dispute arises ... and where no agreement within a reasonable period of time is reached, ... at the request of any party to the dispute, accept submission of the matter to conciliation under Annex V, section 2;
In other words, it doesn't matter what kind of declaration China had made to exclude "any one or more of the procedures provided for in section 2 with respect to one or more of the following categories of disputes". In the end China must still submit to conciliation under Annex V, section 2 if “no agreement within a reasonable period of time is reached”. The only thing that can legally keep China out of accepting arbitration is the clause "any dispute that necessarily involves the concurrent consideration of any unsettled dispute concerning sovereignty or other rights over continental or insular land territory shall be excluded from such submission". Therefore, China can refuse to submit to arbitration not based on its declaration in 2006 but on the requirement to exclude from any submission "concurrent consideration of any unsettled dispute concerning sovereignty".
It is because of the requirement to exclude any concurrent consideration of dispute involving unsettled sovereignty that Philippines had specified that it does not seek to settle the sovereignty question during the arbitration. This might remove the "concurrent consideration" problem. So, the question for the arbitration court is whether it will accept Philippines argument that the arbitration court can have jurisdiction to settle whatever other disputes Philippines is submitting to it without "concurrently" touching the sovereignty dispute. If the arbitration court decided it can, then it will go ahead to make a decision. Then there will be all kinds of problems for China. A decision in favor of Philippines can then put heavy pressure on China due to the world opinion. It will give the Chinese compradors and assorted traitors the ammunition to force the Chinese government to abandon sovereignty disputes.
Of course, China can reject the arbitration court's decision and use force to take the islands based on China's historical evidence as it has been saying for many decades. But given the weakness and indecisiveness of the Chinese government and the exceptional influence of the compradors and foreign bought traitors, nobody knows how the Chinese government will ultimately do. Therefore, it is of burning urgency that the Chinese government now move quickly to evict the Filipino personnel on the 8 Chinese islands and features. Once the Filipinos have all been evicted then China can unambiguously claim to be in full occupation and control of the islands and features. Then Philippines has no legal standing to be claiming any EEZ or continental shelf or any other rights under the UNCLOS provisions when it is not in demonstrable occupation and control over any of these islands and features. In other words, Philippines cannot claim any sovereign rights such as EEZ based on islands it does not occupy and control, let alone own. Hence it cannot even have any basis for bringing anything for arbitration against China.
Many Chinese have tried to lull the Chinese government into complacency with the refrain that time is on China's side. They say China is growing richer and more powerful by the day. So why make waves unsettling the situation in the S. China Sea? Let the sleeping dog lie. As China grow richer and stronger, it can easily settle the problem in due time some time in the future. This line of argument is dangerous because the situation is not always under the control of China. By bribing the judges or using political pressure on the judges, Philippines with the help of America and Japan can motivate the judges to twist the laws around to make unjust but plausible decisions. And since the judges' decisions are final there is no appeal. So even if China can condemn the decision to be corrupted it will be too late. Therefore, China must immediately act to safeguard its sovereignty by using force rather than relying on dangerously uncertain foreign judges who can be counted on to be prejudiced against China.
China must give Philippines an ultimatum to evacuate its personnel by the end of May or sooner - preferably sooner. If any Filipinos were found on any of the 8 Chinese sovereign islands on the morning of June 1, 2013 or whenever the ultimatum expired then Chinese Maritime authorities and the Chinese naval authorities will execute Chinese laws and arrest them. Once all Filipinos are arrested and evacuated from the islands, then there is no sovereignty disputes. These are all Chinese sovereign territories. Philippines will then have no legal rights to demand any EEZ or anything else based on islands they do not occupy or control. If Philippines still want to dispute sovereignty then it will have to go to the ICJ or World Court. There, China can simply refuse to go to court.
This is the most certain way for China to safeguard its sovereignty. It is nonsense that evicting Filipinos will collapse the Chinese economy. America is not going to shut down Malacca St. even if China sank a hundred Filipino naval vessels or kill a thousand Filipino invaders in the process of evicting them from Chinese sovereign islands. Americans, Japnese, Vietnamese, and assorted western stooges will of course scream to the high heavens. But as loudly as they will scream they will not do anything. And having established sovereignty over the 8 islands, China will have served a warning on Vietnam. Then the Vietnamese will quickly settled the dispute with joint development or China can use the same formula and kick all the Vietnamese out of the 9-Dotted Line waters. If the Vietnamese chose to fight then let China fight. This would not be the first time China has fought Vietnam. And the fighting will be good for China by giving the Chinese military valuable experience.
On the other hand, if China did not evict the Filipinos with force and the arbitration court ruled against China, then China will have even bigger problems. Vietnam will immediately follow suit and ended up gobbling up even more of China's sovereign territories. Similarly with Japan. Even Malaysia and Brunei will be emboldened to use the same tactic. Therefore, China simply cannot take the risk of depending on the arbitration court to do the right thing. China has no time to lose. It must act resolutely now because the chances of arbitration court finding in favor of China is practically nil. Therefore, it is China taking back its sovereign islands with force or lose it without a fight. If Philippines gained tens of thousands of square kilometers of Chinese sovereign waters and hundreds of billions of dollars of valuable oil and gas and other resources then the Chinese people will condemn the CCP government for ten thousands years as corrupt traitors.
中国不能依靠2006年的声明避免非礼殡的强制仲裁。 2013-05-07 07:16 #2