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主题: Is America really supporting Japnese aggression over Diaoyu

Is America really supporting Japnese aggression over Diaoyu 2013-01-16 14:00 #1

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Is America really supporting Japnese aggression over Diaoyu Islands?

There has been much talk lately about American support for Japan in its attempt to turn its control over Diaoyu Islands into sovereignty rights. The talk has been sparked by the passage of the ‘‘National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2013’’ which contains the SEC. 1286. SENSE OF CONGRESS ON THE SITUATION IN THE SENKAKU ISLANDS. This section contains the clause which states:

QUOTE

(7) the united States reaffirms its commitment to the Government of Japan under Article V of the Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security that “each Party recognizes that an armed attack against either Party in the territories under the administration of Japan would be dangerous to its own peace and safety and declares that it would act to meet the common danger in accordance with its constitutional provisions and processes”.


This has been interpreted by the Japnese to mean that American military has now been legally authorized by its Congress to fight on the side of Japan in any military conflict against China over Diaoyu Islands. Some even go so far as to argue that Obama must order the American military to fight on the side of Japan or else he will be breaking the law as mandated by the American Congress. This is all nonsense. The section pertaining to Japan over Diaoyu Island said nothing more than calling attention to the existence of the Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security particularly to Article V. It merely “affirms” what the Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security had already said about coming to the aid of Japan if it were attacked inside the territories under its administration. In fact, nothing new has been added. All it did is repeat what has already been stated in a decades old treaty. It certainly did not specifically authorize any activity to declare war on China over Diaoyu Islands. And wording of Article V is very loose. It merely said America would act in accordance to America’s “constitutional provisions and processes”. America’s constitutional provisions and processes do not necessarily mean automatic and unrestricted military aids to Japan. Before Obama can issue an order to commit American troops he must first have the specific authorization of the American Congress first. The American Congress alone can declare war and authorize funding to fight the war. So far, there is no such authorization for war anywhere in sight.

The truth is America’s position in the Diaoyu Island conflict is probably ambivalent. America certainly would want to dominate China and reduce its rise in wealth and power and curtail its challenge to America‘s influence around the world. Yet at the same time America doesn’t want to see Japan become too powerful militarily remembering the Pacific War. Also, America wants to derive more economic benefit from China especially during this very difficult time in its economic problems. Therefore, America’s strategy is probably driven by the desire to intimidate China to extort more economic concessions out of it and allow it to gain greater access into China’s domestic economy. For example, America would like to sell things directly to the Chinese government in competition with China’s own domestic enterprises. This will allow America to sell hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of products and services to the Chinese government while expanding its direct control of the Chinese bureaucracy through establishing a system of corruption and blackmail. Therefore, America is using Japan to intimidate China to extort more concessions out of it. But at the same time America would not want to arm Japan so powerfully that it can ultimately turn against its American master and break the American dog collar around its neck. In the best of its dreams, America would like to see Japan establish some kind of military base on Diaoyu Island and precipitate a limited war wherein Japan can defeat the Chinese forces. Then America can step in and negotiate a peace wherein it can extort concessions from the Chinese.

But what if Japan got defeated by Chinese military? For example, what if Chinese fighters shoot down just as many Japnese fighters as its own losses? Or even worse for America, what if Chinese fighters shoot down twice as many Japnese fighters as its own losses? And worse of all, what if Chinese forces won a decisive victory over the Japnese and ended up occupying Diaoyu Islands? Will America then enter the war with its own military assets? For example, will Obama order the 7th Fleet to enter the war with its aircraft carrier? And what if the Chinese fighters shoot down American fighters and sinks the American carrier? Then what? How much is America prepared to sacrifice for this war? What if Chinese consumers are incensed at the American involvement in the war and boycott or reject American products in Chinese domestic market? And if China breaks off trade with America, how will that affect American economy? I think it will cause catastrophic recession in America as American store shelves will become empty with no Chinese imports coming into America. America exports to China will cease. Chinese purchase of Americana treasuries will cease. America will run out of money and the government must print more money and cause inflation. In short order, there will be catastrophic inflation and stagnation. American stock market will crash with all the uncertainties and that will drag down the overall economy. In other words, nobody can tell for sure what the ultimate result will be if war broke out over Diaoyu Islands. But the probability of good result for America is vanishingly small. No matter what happened, America will lose either economically or militarily or both. Even if America won militarily it will still lose economically. And if America lost militarily then it will lose not only economically but it will lose all its military credibility all around the world. Russia will be even more blatant in its dispute over the Arctic resources and much less compromising in its dealings with the US everywhere such as in Syria. And EU will also be less accommodating and become more independent. Even NATO might be dissolved as France try to exert its leadership over Western Europe. And China will expand its prestige and credibility and leadership over the Mid-East. Certainly, Iran and Syria will be more determined to fight. In the end, America will have everything to lose and nothing to gain. Therefore, America must tread very carefully and in the end stop any shooting war from occurring.

On the other hand, China has little to lose and everything to gain. As I’ve pointed out for years, China’s economic development can only rely on its own domestic development based on its indigenous technological advancement, the urbanization of its rural residents and the self-sufficiency of energy. China can produce all the goods and services its people need and want and therefore does not need to trade internationally to get any needful things. And Chinese people save a large portion of their incomes which means China has plenty of money for investment. Therefore, China does not need to trade nor does it need FDI. Ultimately, China can develop at the fastest rate by reducing trade and banning FDI. In fact, the only way for China to develop to its full potential is by reducing trade and excluding FDI. And if a limited war with Japan and America will lead to the reduction of trade and the exclusion of FDI and promote the expansion of domestic development then it is ultimately a very salutary thing for China.

In the final analysis, a limited war with Japan and America over Diaoyu Islands will be good for China and bad for Japan and America. Especially since Hu and Wen will be leaving these two men will not be around to lead China into surrender at the first sound of gunfire. And if China fought then it will gain even in defeat. And if China wins, and I think its chances of winning is 90% or more, then it will gain prestige around the world while the Chinese people will be imbued with self-confidence and be eager to be economically independent and so take the sustainable path to full development. And Japan and America will lose even if they won a limited war by gaining control over Diaoyu Island. All it means is that a long term war will drag on until China inevitably becomes militarily strong enough to kick them out of Diaoyu Islands. Meanwhile, Japnese and American businesses will close down in China and the Japnese and American economies will slide down into endemic recession until Chinese economy becomes many times bigger than their combined economies and squeeze them out of the international market. In the end, Japan and America will become two of the poorest countries in the world with nobody to trade with and with China attacking them at every turn until their resources are totally exhausted by military expenditure.

Therefore, the wisest move for America to make at this point in time is to rein in Japan and declare that the sovereignty of Diaoyu Island belongs to China. This will quickly defuse the tension and gain for America some goodwill among the Chinese. Then as Chinese economy progresses rapidly, America can derive more economic benefit from it.

http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/BILLS-112h ... 310enr.pdf

‘‘National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2013’’.

SEC. 1286. SENSE OF CONGRESS ON THE SITUATION IN THE SENKAKU ISLANDS.

http://afe.easia.columbia.edu/ps/japan/ ... treaty.pdf

Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security between the United States and Japan (January 1960)

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Is America really supporting Japnese aggression over Diaoyu 2013-01-16 18:26 #2

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Liang3a 写道:: Therefore, the wisest move for America to make at this point in time is to rein in Japan and declare that the sovereignty of Diaoyu Island belongs to China. This will quickly defuse the tension and gain for America some goodwill among the Chinese. Then as Chinese economy progresses rapidly, America can derive more economic benefit from it.

寄望于美国宣布钓鱼岛主权属于中国无异于与狐谋皮。美帝极端自私自利,根本没有秉持其一贯宣扬的国际公理与正义,那不过是它欺骗世人的幌子,是完全围绕美国利益服务的工具而已。

美国的立场其实很清楚,就是想方设法地挑拨中日关系,引导中日对抗,以此一方面打击中国经济,拖延甚至扼杀中国迅猛崛起的发展势头,另一方面乘机卖人情卖军火给日本,加紧对日本的经济剥削并对加强主仆关系的控制,使日本这个走狗最大化地为美国利益服务。美帝唯利是图的基因注定它对中国不会真正地友好,会一直设法在中国周边地区挑拨是非,给中国制造麻烦,试图截止中国前进的步伐,目光所及,不仅包括日本、台湾地区、菲律宾、越南,甚至包括缅甸与印度。

美国罔顾钓鱼岛主权属于中国的国际法理与历史事实,单方面把的钓鱼岛的管辖权转交给日本,并火上浇油地支持自己的走狗日本向中国不断挑衅与施压,使中日鹬蚌相争,美国渔翁得利。

一旦中日战争爆发,美国肯定会肆无忌惮地卖情报卖军火给日本,趁机大发战争财,并期望巨人中国遭受重创,伤痕累累;万一日本军事失利,美国所做的也不过是卖给日本更大量更先进的军火,趁机继续大发战争财,但绝不会出兵跟中国直面对抗,而是设法纠集国际一切敌对中国的势力全方位围堵与打击中国。

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Is America really supporting Japnese aggression over Diaoyu 2013-01-18 07:42 #3

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nick 写:

美国罔顾钓鱼岛主权属于中国的国际法理与历史事实,单方面把的钓鱼岛的管辖权转交给日本,并火上浇油地支持自己的走狗日本向中国不断挑衅与施压,使中日鹬蚌相争,美国渔翁得利。


其实美国没有什么利益可得。如果中国切断和美贸易那美国经济就会马上困难。又如果中国关闭美国在中国的事业,比如GM造车厂,那美国的损失将非常大。结果美国将得不偿失。

nick 写:
一旦中日战争爆发,美国肯定会肆无忌惮地卖情报卖军火给日本,趁机大发战争财,并期望巨人中国遭受重创,伤痕累累;万一日本军事失利,美国所做的也不过是卖给日本更大量更先进的军火,趁机继续大发战争财,但绝不会出兵跟中国直面对抗,而是设法纠集国际一切敌对中国的势力全方位围堵与打击中国。


其实美国也没有什么更先进的武器能卖给日本。F-20 和 F-35 也就是美国最先进的武器了。美国已经同意卖给日本几十架F-35。不过这些F-35还要过几年才能交货。到那时中国的J-20,J-31,和 J-18 都能部署和这些F-20和F-35对抗。

中国对美国和日本最有效的对抗办法是经济抵制。如果中国敢切断根日本和美国的贸易和关闭日本和美国在中国的事业那日本和美国就会马上停战求和。如果中国一边跟他们打一边跟他们做生意,那中国是送钱给他们武装打中国。这就是中国自己作孽。因为日本人知道中国人一点私人利益都不肯牺牲所以他们才自信的说“政治冷,经济热”。所以日本人想他们能和中国一边打战一边从中国赚钱买武器打中国,到最后中国的汉奸向他们投降;像甲午战争一样把钓鱼岛送给他们。

nick 写:
并期望巨人中国遭受重创,伤痕累累


其实中国的经济庞大,跟日本打一场局部战争不会对全部经济有太大的影响。最多是损失几十架飞机和几只军舰。这只不过是几百亿人民币而已。中国的GDP是50万亿。就是损失了500亿人民币也不过是GDP的0.1%。谈不到伤痕累累。

我已经说过了很多次,中国的经济发展已经不能再依靠贸易和外资。如果中国继续依靠贸易和外资那中国的经济发展率将跌到1%或2%。2013年中国的发展率可能只有7.5%。不过如果中国能发展国内经济那中国就能维持30年每年7.5%的发展率。所以如果打一场局部战争能转变中国的经济发展模式从对外贸易变成国内发展,那这场战争可以说是一个中国经济发展的催化剂,对中国的长期发展大大有益。

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Is America really supporting Japnese aggression over Diaoyu 2013-01-19 13:16 #4

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http://bbs.miercn.com/201301/thread_153414_1_2.html

中国的战略形势面临是南北夹击--南海与东海同时有事,世界头号大国--美国与全球第三大经济体--日本的联手与合围。在如此复杂形势下,中国将如何灵活、机智应对?

  首先,战略方向上要判断不要失误。美国强调钓鱼岛防卫适用于日美安保条约第五条,利用中国与周边国家领土争端介入,只不过是其显示世界霸主的手段,进一步控制日本的方法。尽管这种手段不那么光明正大,不为人所耻,但毕竟美国不想侵占中国一寸领土,只不过是为了防范中国实力过度膨胀,东亚国家倒向中国。

这与日本分化、弱化、瓦解中国的战略完全不同--只要中国统一、完整与发展,日本就永远没有抬头之日!因此,从战略取向上,日本是中国真正的对手,而美国仍是中国现在或未来潜在的战略伙伴。据日本媒体称,日本刚向外透露在钓鱼岛要对中国飞机进行警告性射击时,那边刚病愈上班的希拉里当晚就给日本外相电话,并在电话中大骂日本“蠢货”!日本若越红线,中美亦有联手制约日本的可能,中国千万别再有战略误判!


中美联手的可能性不大,不过也不是完全没有可能。最后中国还是要依赖自己。美国和日本也不是什么永恒不变的朋友。

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Is America really supporting Japnese aggression over Diaoyu 2013-01-21 13:43 #5

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Liang3a 写道:: 中美联手的可能性不大,不过也不是完全没有可能。最后中国还是要依赖自己。美国和日本也不是什么永恒不变的朋友。


从根本上说在全球范围内美国最大的对手就是中国了。这就决定了美国不可能真正跟中国联手,至多是短暂的貌合神离的有限合作。但中美双方的智慧与外交经验的老到又保证了双方斗而不破,尤其是美国有组织代理人战争的能力,比如唆使日本跟中国军事冲突,而自身不大可能跟中国直接正面交锋。

至于美国和日本的关系,与其说是朋友,不如用主人跟走狗的关系形容得更加贴切。其实日本最大的仇人是美国,但日本在美国的牢固掌控之下,根本没有独立的人格与自由选择的余地。只要日本摆脱不掉美国手中的狗链子,日本将永远是美国的“朋友”,无论心甘情愿还是无可奈何,必须跟美国一道,随时充当其走狗与打手。

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