主题： Is America really supporting Japnese aggression over Diaoyu
Is America really supporting Japnese aggression over Diaoyu 2013-01-16 14:00 #1
Is America really supporting Japnese aggression over Diaoyu Islands?
There has been much talk lately about American support for Japan in its attempt to turn its control over Diaoyu Islands into sovereignty rights. The talk has been sparked by the passage of the ‘‘National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2013’’ which contains the SEC. 1286. SENSE OF CONGRESS ON THE SITUATION IN THE SENKAKU ISLANDS. This section contains the clause which states:
This has been interpreted by the Japnese to mean that American military has now been legally authorized by its Congress to fight on the side of Japan in any military conflict against China over Diaoyu Islands. Some even go so far as to argue that Obama must order the American military to fight on the side of Japan or else he will be breaking the law as mandated by the American Congress. This is all nonsense. The section pertaining to Japan over Diaoyu Island said nothing more than calling attention to the existence of the Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security particularly to Article V. It merely “affirms” what the Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security had already said about coming to the aid of Japan if it were attacked inside the territories under its administration. In fact, nothing new has been added. All it did is repeat what has already been stated in a decades old treaty. It certainly did not specifically authorize any activity to declare war on China over Diaoyu Islands. And wording of Article V is very loose. It merely said America would act in accordance to America’s “constitutional provisions and processes”. America’s constitutional provisions and processes do not necessarily mean automatic and unrestricted military aids to Japan. Before Obama can issue an order to commit American troops he must first have the specific authorization of the American Congress first. The American Congress alone can declare war and authorize funding to fight the war. So far, there is no such authorization for war anywhere in sight.
The truth is America’s position in the Diaoyu Island conflict is probably ambivalent. America certainly would want to dominate China and reduce its rise in wealth and power and curtail its challenge to America‘s influence around the world. Yet at the same time America doesn’t want to see Japan become too powerful militarily remembering the Pacific War. Also, America wants to derive more economic benefit from China especially during this very difficult time in its economic problems. Therefore, America’s strategy is probably driven by the desire to intimidate China to extort more economic concessions out of it and allow it to gain greater access into China’s domestic economy. For example, America would like to sell things directly to the Chinese government in competition with China’s own domestic enterprises. This will allow America to sell hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of products and services to the Chinese government while expanding its direct control of the Chinese bureaucracy through establishing a system of corruption and blackmail. Therefore, America is using Japan to intimidate China to extort more concessions out of it. But at the same time America would not want to arm Japan so powerfully that it can ultimately turn against its American master and break the American dog collar around its neck. In the best of its dreams, America would like to see Japan establish some kind of military base on Diaoyu Island and precipitate a limited war wherein Japan can defeat the Chinese forces. Then America can step in and negotiate a peace wherein it can extort concessions from the Chinese.
But what if Japan got defeated by Chinese military? For example, what if Chinese fighters shoot down just as many Japnese fighters as its own losses? Or even worse for America, what if Chinese fighters shoot down twice as many Japnese fighters as its own losses? And worse of all, what if Chinese forces won a decisive victory over the Japnese and ended up occupying Diaoyu Islands? Will America then enter the war with its own military assets? For example, will Obama order the 7th Fleet to enter the war with its aircraft carrier? And what if the Chinese fighters shoot down American fighters and sinks the American carrier? Then what? How much is America prepared to sacrifice for this war? What if Chinese consumers are incensed at the American involvement in the war and boycott or reject American products in Chinese domestic market? And if China breaks off trade with America, how will that affect American economy? I think it will cause catastrophic recession in America as American store shelves will become empty with no Chinese imports coming into America. America exports to China will cease. Chinese purchase of Americana treasuries will cease. America will run out of money and the government must print more money and cause inflation. In short order, there will be catastrophic inflation and stagnation. American stock market will crash with all the uncertainties and that will drag down the overall economy. In other words, nobody can tell for sure what the ultimate result will be if war broke out over Diaoyu Islands. But the probability of good result for America is vanishingly small. No matter what happened, America will lose either economically or militarily or both. Even if America won militarily it will still lose economically. And if America lost militarily then it will lose not only economically but it will lose all its military credibility all around the world. Russia will be even more blatant in its dispute over the Arctic resources and much less compromising in its dealings with the US everywhere such as in Syria. And EU will also be less accommodating and become more independent. Even NATO might be dissolved as France try to exert its leadership over Western Europe. And China will expand its prestige and credibility and leadership over the Mid-East. Certainly, Iran and Syria will be more determined to fight. In the end, America will have everything to lose and nothing to gain. Therefore, America must tread very carefully and in the end stop any shooting war from occurring.
On the other hand, China has little to lose and everything to gain. As I’ve pointed out for years, China’s economic development can only rely on its own domestic development based on its indigenous technological advancement, the urbanization of its rural residents and the self-sufficiency of energy. China can produce all the goods and services its people need and want and therefore does not need to trade internationally to get any needful things. And Chinese people save a large portion of their incomes which means China has plenty of money for investment. Therefore, China does not need to trade nor does it need FDI. Ultimately, China can develop at the fastest rate by reducing trade and banning FDI. In fact, the only way for China to develop to its full potential is by reducing trade and excluding FDI. And if a limited war with Japan and America will lead to the reduction of trade and the exclusion of FDI and promote the expansion of domestic development then it is ultimately a very salutary thing for China.
In the final analysis, a limited war with Japan and America over Diaoyu Islands will be good for China and bad for Japan and America. Especially since Hu and Wen will be leaving these two men will not be around to lead China into surrender at the first sound of gunfire. And if China fought then it will gain even in defeat. And if China wins, and I think its chances of winning is 90% or more, then it will gain prestige around the world while the Chinese people will be imbued with self-confidence and be eager to be economically independent and so take the sustainable path to full development. And Japan and America will lose even if they won a limited war by gaining control over Diaoyu Island. All it means is that a long term war will drag on until China inevitably becomes militarily strong enough to kick them out of Diaoyu Islands. Meanwhile, Japnese and American businesses will close down in China and the Japnese and American economies will slide down into endemic recession until Chinese economy becomes many times bigger than their combined economies and squeeze them out of the international market. In the end, Japan and America will become two of the poorest countries in the world with nobody to trade with and with China attacking them at every turn until their resources are totally exhausted by military expenditure.
Therefore, the wisest move for America to make at this point in time is to rein in Japan and declare that the sovereignty of Diaoyu Island belongs to China. This will quickly defuse the tension and gain for America some goodwill among the Chinese. Then as Chinese economy progresses rapidly, America can derive more economic benefit from it.
http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/BILLS-112h ... 310enr.pdf
‘‘National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2013’’.
SEC. 1286. SENSE OF CONGRESS ON THE SITUATION IN THE SENKAKU ISLANDS.
http://afe.easia.columbia.edu/ps/japan/ ... treaty.pdf
Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security between the United States and Japan (January 1960)
Is America really supporting Japnese aggression over Diaoyu 2013-01-16 18:26 #2
强盛 威严 博爱 之中国
Is America really supporting Japnese aggression over Diaoyu 2013-01-18 07:42 #3
其实美国也没有什么更先进的武器能卖给日本。F-20 和 F-35 也就是美国最先进的武器了。美国已经同意卖给日本几十架F-35。不过这些F-35还要过几年才能交货。到那时中国的J-20，J-31，和 J-18 都能部署和这些F-20和F-35对抗。
Is America really supporting Japnese aggression over Diaoyu 2013-01-19 13:16 #4
Is America really supporting Japnese aggression over Diaoyu 2013-01-21 13:43 #5
强盛 威严 博爱 之中国