主题： Yes, no banana. (是，没有香蕉。)
Yes, no banana. (是，没有香蕉。) 2012-05-20 12:11 #1
http://english.cntv.cn/program/newsupda ... 4750.shtml
Filipino banana growers and exporters are screaming about their losses due to the banning of Filipino bananas by Chinese authorities due to the discovery of dangerous insects such as mealy bugs in banana shipments from Philippines. The losses up to now is only in the tens of millions of US dollars. This is just a drop in the bucket compared to the $30 billion total trade between the two countries. As I said before, $30 billion is just 1% of China's total foreign trade and 0.4% of its total GDP. But it is 28% of Philippines' total foreign trade of $108 billion and 15% of Philippines' total GDP of $200 billion. Obviously China won't even feel the effect of a total cessation of trade with Philippines while Filipino people will be affected catastrophically. Already the cessation of Chinese tourists has reduced the tourism cash flow by some 10% to the Filipino tourist industry (probably worth about $1 billion). And if the trade ban extends into other areas of trade then Filipino economy can very well collapse. It all depends on how much the Chinese government wants to punish Philippines.
The number of Chinese mainland tourists to Philippines for the first 3 months of 2012 is 96,455 with another 28,800 from Hong Kong. This makes Chinese tourists from China mainland and Hong Kong the third largest group of tourists visiting Philippines. There are another 110,000 ethnic Chinese tourists from Taiwan, Singapore and Malaysia who will surely avoid Philippines for fear of being harassed by Filipino nationalist hotheads if they visited Philippines while a war was going on between China and Philippines. So altogether ethnic Chinese tourists account for some 25% of all tourists to Philippines for the first 3 months of 2012 or some 250,000 out of a total of some 1 million tourists to Philippines. If each ethnic Chinese tourist spent $2,000 then the potential loss to the Philippines tourist industry for the second half of 2012 could be some $1 billion (500,000 ethnic Chinese tourists times $2,000 per tourist). If the situation drags on for years then each year Philippines will see 1 million fewer Chinese tourists for a potential loss of $2 billion. And if war actually broke out, then even non-ethnic Chinese tourists will stay away leading to even greater losses. It is obviously a big blow to the Philippines tourists industry and one that will provoke great dissatisfaction among the Filipino people.
At the same time, the Filipino people are getting disgusted with Aquino because they mostly will not see a penny of any oil money which will go mostly to the few fat cat capitalists and top rank politicians like Aquino himself. In the meanwhile the livelihood of the ordinary Filipinos is being degraded because of the decline of income opportunities. This is why it is also good for the Chinese government to use force to quickly settle this problem once and for all so that all can go back to developing the basic economies in both countries to benefit all the peoples, both Chinese people and Filipino people, and forget about the sovereignty dispute over what is clearly Chinese sovereign territories.
Since the land and sea all belong to China, there is no need for China to share its resources and benefits with any other countries. It is the stupidity of Deng and the cowardice of the CCP that China has created this current intractable problem in the S. China Sea. If China simply made a strong and clear warning to the other countries to get out of China's sovereign territories then the problem would have stopped long ago. Instead the cowardly and bumbling behavior of the CCP has encouraged even small piddling countries such as Philippines to challenge China's sovereignty claims to creat the current insoluble problem that cannot be solved unless with a strong show of military force. In trying to be peaceful, the stupid CCP government has created a dangerous situation that seems to go on without end.
The CCP is unfit to rule China and has disgraced China in the eyes of the world and endangering the security and sovereignty of the great Chinese nation.
Yes, no banana. (是，没有香蕉。) 2012-05-22 13:44 #2
http://spengler.atimes.net/viewtopic.ph ... 4e5e75a528
by Liang » Mon May 21, 2012 2:56 pm
The Chinese had fought very few times against invaders. And when they didn't fight, they had been subjugated for hundreds of years at a time and caused great sufferings to the Chinese people. In the end, it is less costly to fight and win than be defeated without a fight.
As for supply of bananas, China can buy land from Malaysia in Sabah and Sarawak or even Indonesia. There is plenty of empty jungle land that amounts to tens of millions of acres in Kalimantan or Borneo alone. China can simultaneously compel Malaysia to leave Nansha Islands while at the same time expand banana and other fruit cultivation and production in Malaysia and sell them to China. 10 million acres of banana and other tropical fruits can easily bring thousands of dollars per acre per year thus amounting to tens of billions of dollars per year and worht as much as all the oil Malaysia can get out of Nansha Islands. And while oil and gas will be depleted after a few years, agricultural products can be produced practically forever so long as the land is properly managed. This is the way China should conduct its benevolent foreign policies. It should be firm and demand respect from its neighbors while at the same time provide opportunities for all to benefit in such things as tropical fruit production and sale to China. This is the way to maintain peace and security and prosperity to all in the region.