01 四 2018
主题： Now is the time to go to war in South Sea
Now is the time to go to war in South Sea 2011-09-29 02:15 #1
http://www.chnqiang.com/article/2011/09 ... 1084.shtml
http://www.chnqiang.com/article/2011/09 ... 92_1.shtml
This is nonsense. You can see clearly that by the map above,
all of the Nansha A. are less than 1,500 km or 800 nautical miles
away from Hai Nan. If you add up 330 + 700 + 400 then you'd get
1,430 km which is 858 miles or 746 nautical miles. But if you draw
a straight line from Hai Nan to 弹丸礁 the distance is more likely
to be 1,240 km or 670 nm. The combat radius of J-10 (with midair
refueling), J-11, Su-27, and Su-30 are all 1,500 km or more. Without
midair refueling the combat radius of J-10 is around 1,100 km which
covers most of the Nansha A. Therefore, it is wrong to say that
"这些岛礁离我国本土都在1000-2000海里以上". This is a misinformation.
Furthermore, the invading countries don't have big air forces or navies.
At least their fighters and naval ships do not have clear superiority over
Chinese fighters and naval ships. On the contrary, it is Chinese fighters
and naval ships that have clear superiority over the invading countries. The Philippines,
for example, doesn't even have any jet fighters or modern frigates or submarines.
And while the nearest territories of the invading countries are closer
to Nansha A. it does not mean that all their territories are closer to Nansha
A. For example, about 1/3 of Vietnam is actually north of Hai Nan and farther
away from Nansha A. than Hai Nan. More than half of Vietnam is north of Xisha A. and
farther away from Nansha A. than Xisha. So if China station jet fighters on Xisha islands
then they would be closer to Nansha A. than Vietnamese fighters that are
stationed north of Xisha A. Malaysia also does not have air force bases
in Sabah that I know of. The Su-30, Mig-29 and FA-18 are all stationed
in Malay Peninsula and are not much closer to Nansha than Chinese fighters stationed
in Hai Nan. And as I said before, Philippines really doesn't have any 4th
generation fighters to threaten Chinese frigates. And even without Chinese
fighters to cover them, Chinese destroyers of the Type 052 which carry ship
to air missiles HQ-9 with a range of 200 km can simply hit any Vietnamese
Su-27 or Malaysian FA-18 before they can even get in range (less than 125
km) to launch their missiles.
Malaysian Air Force bases:
11 Squadron - Su-30MKM Flanker, Gong Kedak AFB
18 Squadron - Boeing F/A-18D Hornet, Butterworth AFB
19 Squadron - MiG 29N/UB, Kuantan AFB
Gong Kedak, Butterworth, and Kuantan are all in Malay Peninsula.
Furthermore, Vietnam has some 60 Su-27 and Su-30 now already. Malaysia has a squadron each of Su-30, Mig-29 and FA-18 which probably number between 30 to 50 fighters. So together they already have some 90 to 110 of 4th generation fighters. So even if China deployed 3 aircraft carriers carrying 90 J-15 which are comparable to Su-27, they would still not be enough to fight the 110 4th generation fighters of Vietnam and Malaysia combined. But since China already has some 600 4th generation fighters based on land and which can comfortably reach the farthest islands in the Nansha A., China already has enough fighters to provide more than adequate air cover for the naval ships. Furthermore, Chinese destroyers have ship to air missiles so they don't need air cover.
Therefore, the military strategy of China is to destroy the air force of
Vietnam now. (Vietnam still has no submarines now but it will be getting
maybe up to 3 within the next few years.) With the Vietnamese air force
destroyed, it will not have the air cover to launch any attack against any
Chinese garrisons on any Nansha A. islands. China can sink any bigger Vietnamese
naval surface vessels with cruise missiles or DF-21D anti-ship ballistic
missile. China should then prevent the delivery of submarines to Vietnam
either by persuading Russia from delivering them or to sink them en route
before they reach Vietnamese naval bases or as soon as they are in port
anywhere in Vietnam. Without air cover and without any naval ships to attack
Chinese garrisons, Vietnam cannot attack Chinese garrisons at all. The
cost of destroying Vietnamese air force and navy is minimal at the current
time (2011). But the longer China waits the more costly it will be as Vietnam
buys more fighters and frigate and submarines.
Another thing China can do is to establish air force and naval bases in Laos and Cambodia. From Cambodian air bases Chinese fighters are not much farther away from Nansha A. than any Vietnamese fighters. Also Chinese fighters/bombers in Cambodia will be much closer to either Nansha A. or Malay Peninsula than Malaysian fighters based in Malay Peninsula are from Nansha A. This means Chinese fighters/bombers can bomb Malaysian air bases and naval bases located in Malay Peninsula. If China can negotiate a treaty with Cambodia it can begin stationing fighters/bombers in Cambodia within a few months or weeks. China can simply land a brigade of paratroopers to secure an existing Cambodian air base and start to land planes there. Or the air base can be used for refueling fighters/bombers on their way to hit Vietnam or Malaysia.
Once China had defeated Vietnam and reestablished Chinese garrisons on the
Nansha A. islands, then Malaysia and Philippines will be frightened seeing
China is serious about using force. Then they will probably give up and
leave peacefully. If not, then China can wipe them out. Militarily it
is no problem for China.
The biggest fear is, of course, the US. But the US is for now not in a
position to fight China to the bitter end. Therefore, it will simply not
enter the fight. Also, the US always wait till its enemies had been weakened
by fighting other enemies before it entered the fight. For example, in
the WW2, the US waited till Japan had exhausted itself fighting China before
it entered the war and did nothing more than attacked a few Pacific Islands
guarded by a few thousand Japanese soldiers. This means the US will not
enter the South Sea war if China can easily defeat the 4 invaders. After
all, the US has nothing to lose even if China won. In fact, it would be
good for the US if China won. Why? Because once China won then things
will settle down and China can help these 4 poor countries to develop economically.
And only if these countries are well developed can the US derive any economic
benefits from them. For example, now the Philippines is dead in the water
economically. It has a per capita GDP of some $2,000 and a total GDP of
less than $200 billion. Philippines' GDP ($188.7 billion ) is even less
than Singapore's ($222 billion) even though Singapore has a population of
less than 5 million to Philippines' more than 100 million. Therefore, the
US cannot sell much of anything to the Filipinos. But if China can invest
and develop the Filipino economy then the Filipinos can increase their purchasing
power and can buy much more from the US thus helping the US economy. Therefore,
it will benefit the US for China to win the South Sea war.
I don't know who the writer of the original article is. But this fellow certainly doesn' know
what he is talking about. His informations are all factually wrong such as the distance from
China to the Nansha A. His arguments are all illogical. His style is flighty and irreverent.
I don't know for what purpose he is wring his articles. But he is certainly misleading the Chinese people to take the wrong path. My guess is he is on the side of the enemies and is trying to persuade the Chinese people not to call for military action now. And by putting off action now, China would lose the best window of opportunity to take back its sovereign territories. Even if China finally fight after deploying 3 to 5 aircraft carriers which take another 5 to 10 years, the losses will be much heavier since by that time Vietnam and Malaysia will surely have many more fighters, frigates, and submarines than they do now. Even Philippines might deploy many 4th generation fighters and even modern frigates and submarines. Therefore, the best time to fight is now. And by waiting China will either lose its opportunity forever or will suffer even greater losses.