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主题: 石之瑜:北京靠让利能促成和谐吗?

石之瑜:北京靠让利能促成和谐吗? 2011-08-23 10:42 #1

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● 石之瑜
  和谐世界已经是北京对内与对外政策的重要思想指导原则。然而,一连串事件显示,北京所处的世界似乎与和谐理想渐行渐远。

  像上周北京发布外交白皮书,继续本持和谐世界的愿望,对南中国海问题再次重申“搁置争议,共同开发”,透过双边会谈,和平处理。事实上,北京早已停止片面开发,并相信这是各国间默契。可是,最近一年来,各国自行开发之事不断,北京以自制形塑的片面共识显然无效。

  新近另一项调查还发现,日本人对中国印象不佳的超过百分之七十,创下历史新高点。东亚邻邦之间的关系不和睦,虽非新闻,但仍然应对恶化的情感有所警觉,毕竟这与和谐世界的愿望背道而驰。

  同时,就在两岸关系日益热络的今天,台湾国防部长在美国接受访问时指出,美国卖给台湾先进武器可免于自己与中国直接发生军事冲突;且台湾绝不会容许中国踏上中华民国的领土。看来两岸的和谐没有改变政治对立的效果。

  不久前,新疆又再度出现恐怖主义活动,造成大量伤亡。政府治理新疆不可谓不用心。但是政策所提供的优惠,并不能转换成维汉之间的和谐关系。

  如果彼此关系和谐,自然就会相互忍让,和谐是因,相互忍让就是果。但如果关系本不和谐,是否能倒转因果顺序,透过片面忍让,来促成和谐?

  像在碰到汉维或汉藏关系、两岸关系、中美关系、南中国海关系出现紧张时,如果北京片面让利,能不能取得和谐?值此维族地区事端一再、对台政策屡受台独牵制、中国威胁论此起彼落之际,和谐世界犹待努力。

让步所含的责任预期一再落空

  大陆在边疆民族政策上大量挹注资源,希望促进民族和谐;在两岸关系上对台让利,希望促进两岸和谐;在对美外交中,经常忍让配合,希望化解中国威胁论;在南中国海领土问题上主张共同开发,希望能避免纷争。

  然而,至今台湾朝野政党抗拒统一的立场仍待扭转;华府围堵中国的战略并未化解;边疆依旧大小事故不断,南中国海更见各方动作频频。简言之,和谐可培养体谅之情,促成彼此相让,但是相让却未必带来和谐。
  问题比表面看到的还严重。为处理各种不满或猜忌,促成和谐所做的让步,往往是北京片面让步,所因而为对方带来的好处,或可缓和冲突。但是北京所有的让步都隐含了责任预期,亦即对方应同意以和谐为交往原则,不继续在争议的事情上片面行使自己的主张。

  然而,因为获得让利而暂缓的对方,多数不接受这样的责任预期。他们体会不了北京让利的意义,甚至怀疑是缓兵之计,所以他们便只是便宜行事,并无责任感,在拿到好处之际,暂不做声而已。等到形势有不同发展,往往故态复萌。对北京而言,这就形同破坏默契。

  之所以形势会变得更严重,是因为对方为短期好处暂时默不作声,因而就有罪恶感,即使个人没罪恶感,也会被他们的政敌攻击为背叛,所以就需要在隔一段时间后做出强硬表态。

  这样的强硬表态,就是对北京过河拆桥,违背承诺,甚至变成引蛇出洞的证据,于是北京不得不进行某种惩处,才能维持自身信用。而惩处行动正好是中国居心叵测的证据,就算对方心中了解这不一定算什么证据,也会因为被他们的政敌当成是证据,而必须起而对抗。

  这就是何以为了促进和谐所做的让利或让步,结果总是事与愿违。

  比如,各种对台湾让利的安排,并不能改变在长期里马英九只会更加坚定抗拒统一,因为他怕台独攻击他与北京合谋,出卖台湾。

  在南中国海或东海主动延缓开发,经常变成包括越南或菲律宾在内的各方捷足先登的投机,因为不论是有资源不开发,或是开发前与中国商量,都是政治自杀。

  全国支援边疆的财政移转,造成边疆民族文化的保持日益仰赖中央,而中央对社会和谐的责任预期,在恐怖分子眼中,是可忍孰不可忍,以致采取更愤怒的破坏。

  最后,参加维和行动与配合人道干预的积极性,因为每每化解美国反华势力的藉口于一时,反而引发他们更高度的猜忌。

  用片面让利来营造和谐,结果常是自己下不了台。而让利背后预期对方担负和谐的责任,更是大家最后都下不了台的心理因素。这大致说明近年边疆政策、两岸政策与外交政策难着力的道理。
  和谐政策的推动,不能只靠片面让利的政策。所有让利的政策必须同时具体说明其间的责任预期,且在获得承诺之前,不能迳行让利,因为靠默契营造的表面和谐,在尔虞我诈的国际间与政治权谋的各国国内,都非常脆弱。

  最起码,在情况要求必须片面让利的同时,不可阿Q地假定对方已经接受某种默契,才不至于因让利而制造自己面子的压力,最后陷入恶性循环。

作者是台湾大学政治系教授

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石之瑜:北京靠让利能促成和谐吗? 2011-08-23 12:42 #2

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石之瑜:北京靠让利能促成和谐吗?

如果彼此关系和谐,自然就会相互忍让,和谐是因,相互忍让就是果。但如果关系本不和谐,是否能倒转因果顺序,透过片面忍让,来促成和谐?

Translation by Liang:
If the relationship is harmonious then naturally both sides will be forbearing and yielding with each other. Harmony is the cause while mutual forbearance and yielding are the effect. If the relationship is originally not harmonious, is it possible to reverse the cause and effect and through unilateral forbearance and yielding on one side to establish mutual harmony?


忍让 = forbearance and yielding

和谐 = harmony

What 石之瑜 had written is very relevant. The world is full of conflict of individual interests. Each country has its own individual interests. The fact that each country is composed of many political factions is also obviously true. Therefore, it is impossible for one country to yield its own interests. Therefore, just because China yields its interests does not mean other country will follow China's example and take a step backward. Especially, many countries are democratic countries that must listen to the voices of their own peoples. If their peoples want to use force to take what they want, then China's yielding will not be perceived as a benevolent gesture of friendship but merely a sign that their forcefulness is effective.

Because there are many different political factions within any country, there are factions that are friendly to China and there are factions that are hostile to China. If China keeps yielding, then the factions that are friendly to China will be perceived to be ineffective while those who advocate challenging China will be gaining the support of their peoples. But if China go to war and defeat these countries then those factions that are friendly can gain credibility with their peoples. They can say, "See, this is what happen to our country when we challenge China. Challenging China leads only to death and destruction. Therefore, we should establish harmonious relationship with China for mutual benefits."

When Japan defeated China, many Chinese became willing collaborators with the Japanese such as Wang Jing Wei. When America defeated Iraq, many Iraqis became willing collabortors with America. When Vietnam invaded and controlled Combodia and Laos many of these people became collaborators of Vietnam. Therefore, the best way for China to establish harmony with the S. China Sea countries is to defeat them first and then show them benevolence.

司马法齐国司马穰苴著

01章 仁本

古者,以仁为本,以义治之之谓正,正不获意则权。权出于战,不出于中人。是故,
杀人安人,杀之可也;攻其国,爱其民,攻之可也;以战止战,虽战可也。故仁见
亲,义见说,智见恃,勇见方,信见信。内得爱焉,所以守也;外得威焉,所以战
也。

In the ancient time, benevolence is the foundation. To govern with justice
is righteous. If righteousness cannot be obtained then authority must be
imposed. Authority is derived from war and not by mediation. Therefore,
to bring security to the people by killing (the murderers), it is permissible
to kill; to attack a country but love its people, it is permissible to attack;
to stop a war by waging a war, it is permissible to wage war. Therefore,
when benevolence is applied, people are responsive and friendly. When righteousness
is applied, the people are happy. When wisdom is demonstrated the people
will rely on the ruler. When courage is displayed the people will be stable.
Trust will begat trust. The internal of the realm is secured by love
which allows the realm to be defensible. To deal effectively in external affairs, impressive power must be perceived by potential foes which is the reason for war.


Currently China is not being effective in its dealing with foreign countries. Many countries are actually occupying Chinese sovereign territories and mocking Chinese attempt at resolving the problem peacefully. As Si Ma had said thousands of years ago, to deal effectively in external affairs it is first necessary to impress aggressors with overwhelming power. Therefore, China cannot continue to rely on benevolence and mediation to resolve the territorial aggressions by foreigners. It is time to use power to settle this problem and with demonstrable power prevent them from committing further aggressions against China.

Of course, after China has defeated the aggressive invaders then it can show them benevolence by treating them with love and fairness. Then China's fairness can produce trust and happiness in the S. China Sea peoples and peace will finally reign in the region.

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