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主题: 薛理泰:俄国才是中国在南中国海的大患

薛理泰:俄国才是中国在南中国海的大患 2011-08-16 16:13 #1

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区域焦点

  去年7月,美国国务卿希拉里(希拉莉)发表声明,强调各国必须以和平手段解决南沙争端。其后,美国总统、国防部长先后对此给予背书,成为美国对南中国海争端的既定政策。美国政策固然有利于在南沙捷足先登者维持既得利益,让后到者处于形格势禁的地步,只能徒呼荷荷,却也着眼于确保南中国海地区的和平与稳定。

美国的南中国海战略转移

  随后,美国、俄国、日本、印度、澳大利亚等国在南中国海问题上以不同形式作出了“选边站”的表态。在这些国家以强势介入南中国海争端的情势下,在近期内南中国海前景只有维持现状之一途了。

  美国对群岛主权争端向来不持有立场。在上世纪80年代,美国立场是不介入南中国海争端;进入90年代,美国表示希望各国以和平方式解决这个问题,至于美国将以何种方式对非和平方式作出反应,则是三缄其口。这条政策本身就是一种威慑。

  在上世纪90年代中期,中国对美济礁实施了进取性行动,触发了美济礁事件,菲律宾以强硬姿态作出反应,并把美国牵涉进来。1995年5月10日,就南中国海事态演变,美国高官约瑟夫·奈伊代表美国发表了最强烈的警告,声称美国无法容忍中国“蚕食兼并”的行动。

  北京乃在南中国海改取“稳南保北”的战略。质言之,即在南沙海域改取稳健姿态,稳住周边东盟(亚细安)国家,集中力量保住西沙群岛及北部湾。最终,北部倒是保住了(事实上,北部也无须保),南部却没有稳住,形势一泻千里。

俄国比美国捷足先登

  事实上,美国在南中国海也是后到者。在南中国海捷足先登者,除了东盟国家以外,当数俄国,而不是美国。

上世纪80年代,前苏联同越南成立合资公司,联手在南中国海开发白虎油田,产量占越南原油产量半数,迄今仍是越南第一大油田。统计资料显示,如今俄国已经成为越南国家石油公司最大的外方合作伙伴。至于埃克森美孚、BP、道达尔等西方石油公司仅在近年才同越南合资在南中国海开发油气资源。
  俄国与越南合作,既有安全利益,也有经济利益,因为俄国在南中国海分享着巨大的经济利益,成为越南在南中国海问题上同世界强国结成的经济共同体的最大的支柱。明乎此。则不难理解为何近年俄国同意以远较卖给中国更优惠的条件向越南出售新锐武器装备,专门用于南中国海冲突。

  近年越南向俄国订购了大宗先进的武器系统,包括6艘基洛级636常规潜艇、13架苏一27战机、20架苏一30

战机以及大批对海导弹、雷达等。俄国卖给越南的武器的性能,远比早先卖给中国的武器先进,性价比也更高。今年底,苏系列战机将全部交货。2013年底,除了基洛级潜艇以外,这些新锐武器将初步形成战斗力。

  6艘基洛级常规潜艇更是南沙海战中的撒手锏,也将于今年底起逐年交货,5年内全部交货完毕。在俄国建造潜艇时,越南己经同步培训将在这些潜艇上服役的官兵,目前正在由俄国、印度负责培训。由此可见,这些新锐潜艇也将很快形成战斗力,在南中国海以至东海四处巡弋,对包括中国在内的邻国构成相当大的威慑,以保障越占油气田的安全。

  若论在南中国海现存格局中的实际利益,美国作为后到者,远不如俄国。假若孤立地看待问题,美国在南中国海这区域并没有安全、经济层面的重大的战略利益。据判,美国之所以支持东盟在南中国海同中国对抗,在战略层面的着眼点,主要是避免出现中国崛起以后向美国在亚太地区的军事存在发起挑战的局面,趁早下手,以遏制中国势力南下。至于确保美国军机、舰船在太平洋、印度洋之间航行自由以及维持南中国海情势稳定等,也是一种说法。

  俄国在战略层面的着眼点,与美国大相径庭。上述美国在战略层面的着眼点,对俄国全都适用。此外,俄国同越南还有传统友谊,如1979年中、越边境战争及其后长达十年的“两山之战”中,前苏联是唯一支持越南同中国对抗的强国。何况,俄国在南中国海拥有的经济利益是最现实的。南中国海犹如一个金库,俄国通过与越南的长期合作,取自那里的巨额外汇几乎取之不尽、用之不竭。

  另外,从美、俄两国对南中国海周边各国的不同的外交政策,也可以品味出美、俄两国在南中国海问题上的不同立场,由此察见端倪。美国介入的态势是加强与盟国如日本、澳大利亚等的磋商和互动,至于对东盟国家的支持还是环绕着传统盟国菲律宾,对其他国家如越南的支持,主要还是泛面地停留在外交和威慑层次上。同样在南中国海问题上,俄国的政策却不同。俄国对东盟国家也给予间接的支持,却把实际援助集中在越南身上。

  概言之,俄国除了在外交、经济上同越南加强合作以外,还以实际行动给越南提供支撑。当前俄国对中国仍然在脸上保持微笑,在外交上是恶语善讲,在行动上是只做不说。俄国恰如“鸭子划水”,在水面上似乎纹丝不动,在水面下却是做足功夫。

  这也就是为什么越南在加强“军事斗争的准备”时,全部海战利器只能来自俄国而非美国,而美国却只能在外交以及战略威慑层面给予越南间接支持的根由。这是俄、美两国在南中国海争端上给予越南的支撑力度的关键性的不同之处。

  依照目前南中国海情势演变的趋势,一旦越南同中国在南中国海爆发一场海战,越南军队恃以成批杀害解放军官兵的海战利器几乎全部来自俄国而非美国。想来北京在评估未来南中国海爆发冲突的风险时,对此心知肚明。
  作者是斯坦福大学国际安全和合作中心研究员

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薛理泰:俄国才是中国在南中国海的大患 2011-08-17 06:07 #2

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Even though Russia is China's major partner in many alliances such as SCO and BRICS yet it must respect China's fundamental sovereignties. Russia would not be a good partner if it stabbed China in the back by forming an alliance with China's enemies to rob it of its sovereign territories and resources. Russia must immediately cease and desist its collusion with Vietnam.

What can be done is for Russia to terminate its agreements with Vietnam over its oil operations. And instead of paying the Vietnamese its oil royalties, it must pay them to China. Otherwise, China will use force to expel the Vietnamese and shut down Russian oil rigs. Russia must also cease and desist immediately selling arms to Vietnam. It will be bad for both Russia and China if their friendly relationship ends. But without China's support, Russia is going to have a very tough time against Japan, America and EU. Therefore, it would benefit Russia to respect China's sovereignty and hurt Russia to stab China in the back and causing losses to all. Russia must remember what happened during the Cold War when it was totally isolated when China moved to America. It ultimately caused the former USSR to collapse totally. If China abandoned Russia now, it will repeat the same experience. In the end, Japan and America will end up taking Siberia while Germany and Poland will attack from the west. And Russia will disintegrate. Therefore, to ensure its own survival, Russia must respect China's sovereignty and not betray its most important ally for piddling profits in the S. China Sea. Russia must be able to figure out which is more important to it, China or Vietnam. And if Russia think China is so unimportant to it, then obviously China cannot rely on Russia as a dependable ally.

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薛理泰:俄国才是中国在南中国海的大患 2011-08-17 10:09 #3

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Liang3a兄, 看来你还对北极熊存在幻想哪.

除了有着血海深仇的小日本鬼子, 俄国人是中国最大的敌人. 俄国对中国的领土侵占与经济掠夺是每个中国人的耻辱与永久伤害, 这笔账远远没有清算, 俄国人非常明白这一点, 他们从未把中国看做真正的朋友, 也从未真正在乎过中国的利益. 出于自己在经济、政治、地缘与军事上的利益, 它与中国的合作与联盟也是貌合神离, 极为有限的. 俄国的贪婪、冷酷、自私与唯利是图、见利忘义, 是国际社会有目共睹且一致公认的事实. 从近代、现代一直到当代, 中国遭受的俄国的军事与政治制约跟讹诈欺骗简直太多了.

无论何时, 我们对俄国不可抱有任何美好的幻想, 因为它从来不会优先考虑中国的利益的; 中国所能做的, 就是或含蓄或明确地坚决斗争. 中国要敢于在经济上发力, 在国际政治上发力, 甚至在军事上发力, 与中国为敌者, 以及跟中国的敌人勾结在一起而损害中国利益者, 都必须付出应有的代价!

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薛理泰:俄国才是中国在南中国海的大患 2011-08-18 10:48 #4

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nick wrote:
无论何时, 我们对俄国不可抱有任何美好的幻想, 因为它从来不会优先考虑中国的利益的; 中国所能做的, 就是或含蓄或明确地坚决斗争. 中国要敢于在经济上发力, 在国际政治上发力, 甚至在军事上发力, 与中国为敌者, 以及跟中国的敌人勾结在一起而损害中国利益者, 都必须付出应有的代价!


The only people that China can rely on are the Chinese themselves. That is to say, China can never rely on other countries to protect the best interests of China. But no country ever has any true allies. Even America and UK were at war at one time. And even though America is culturally closely related to England, it is increasingly multiracial. That means the relationship between UK and America will grow farther apart in the future. And amongst the EU countries, all of them have fought against each other at one time or another. England against France. France against Germany. Spain against England. France and Germany against Russia. Both Germany and Russia against Poland. And so on. The point of all this is that we make allies not with those who have our best interests at heart but with those who can share with us common interest at any one time. This is why America allied with USSR during the WW2 and then turned around and fought it immediately WW2 was over.

At this particular point in time, both Russia and China face common enemies who are Japan and America. These two are the greatest threats to China now. Without America's encouragement Vietnam would not dare to challenge China. Even if Russia supplied fighters and submarines to Vietnam, China could easily destroy them using its superior weapons. But if America fought on Vietnam's side then it would be a much bigger problem. Of course, China should not tolerate Russia's selling arms to Vietnam. Therefore, China should protest vigorously to Russia and if Russia did not comply with China's protest and stop supplying arms to Vietnam, then as I said in the previous post China should shut down its oil rigs inside China's territorial seas in S. China Sea. Russia itself is facing threats from EU and America and Japan who are combined a much greater threat to it than China can be for another 10 years to 20 years at the soonest. If China were ever neutralized, then Russia would face overwhelming forces attacking both from the east and west which will decisively defeat it.

Russia survived Germany's attack during the WW2 because it could fall back to the east. But if Japan had been able to attack it from the east then Russia's rear would have been destroyed and it would have been divided up between Germany and Japan. The fact that Japan had not been able to attack the USSR from the east was due to the resistance of China which tied down the majority of the Japanese military. Russia should remember this and keep China as its close ally. Otherwise, in a new war EU will attack from the west and Japan and America can attack from the east and they would be able to divide up Russia into several parts.

China is even now much stronger than Russia both economically and militarily. At least China could easily surpass Russia in militarization because China has the bigger economy and increasingly superior technologies and can devote more resources to militarization than Russia. So over the long term, Russia needs China much more than China needs Russia. Russia alone cannot fight EU, Japan and America. In another 10 years, China by itself can fight EU, Japan and America all by itself.

As to China's current policy, it should try to talk to Russia and explain to it these facts and get it to cooperate which ultimately would be in the best interests of Russia. I do not "rely" on Russia. I have always said that China must rely on itself, that is, on the patriotism of the Chinese people. The best way to defend China is by making China technologically superior, economically expansive and militarily dominant. But it would be wise for China to make as many allies as possible, especially among its neighbors.

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