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主题: China preparing for war aginst Vietnam?

China preparing for war aginst Vietnam? 2011-08-15 07:44 #1

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english.peopledaily.com.cn/90786/7564716.html

PLA's operation in S. China routine drill: Defense Ministry
(Xinhua)
17:09, August 09, 2011

China's Ministry of National Defense on Tuesday said that a recent People's Liberation Army (PLA) operation in south China was a routine drill.

Media reports have speculated that a large buildup of PLA troops in the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region along the Vietnam-China border could be related to the recent tensions over the South China Sea.

A statement published on the frontpage of the ministry's website, www.mod.gov.cn , said that the PLA's Guangzhou Military Area Command had conducted an annual routine drill in the region and the media should not leap to speculations.


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China preparing for war aginst Vietnam?

Some people have speculated that the troop movements, involving as many as 500,000 troops from all across China according to some sources, were preparations for an attack on Vietnam in the coming autumn. Maybe it is or maybe it is just a routine exercise as explained by the above quote. But if I were planning for an attack on Vietnam I would not plan to attack the Vietnamese mainland but only to attack the Vietnamese air force and navy to destroy them totally. Then evicting the Vietnamese garrisons on the Chinese islands in the S. China Sea archipelagos would be a simple task. While I would only plan to attack the Vietnamese air force and navy, I would also be wise to deploy some troops across the China-Vietname border to guard against any possible invasion of Vietnamese troops as a revenge or in desperation. This may be the reason why the Chinese troops are in the Guangxi area. Of course, it could also be that China isn't preparing for war at all but only to give a show of force as a caution to the Vietnamese and motivate it to cooperate with China. In this, I'm certain it would be a failure because Vietnam will not cooperate with China if cooperating with China means giving up its claim on the S. China Sea archipelagos and the trillions of dollars of oil wealth.

Destroying Vietnamese air force and navy isn't such a difficult task because there are not that many fighters and frigates. Vietnamese air force has some 60 Su-30 and Su-27 fighters plus another 30 Mig-23 and 200 Mig-21 which are obsolete in Russia. This compares to China's some 600 Su-30, Su-27, J-10, and J-11 plus hundreds of other fighters. There are evidence that China's fighters are superior in equipment and pilots. So destroying the Vietnamese air force will not be a big problem. China also has many missiles which can be used to blow holes in the runways of air bases and so trap the fighters on the ground. Then cruise missiles can swoop in the blow up the fighters as they sit as well as the missile defenses. Then the Chinese fighter/bombes can come in and mop up the remaining fighters and whatever planes on the air bases. As to the navy, there really isn't any navy to speak of. Vietnam will be getting a couple of frigates from Russia in 2011 and 2012. It will also get maybe 6 Kilo class submarines from Russia between 2012 to 2016. So it is advantageous for China to destroy the Vietnamese navy now with lower cost. Vietnamese navy now is just some patrol boats probably armed with machineguns. These will probably stay in port and can be hit with missiles fired from Chinese missile boats 100 km away.

Once the Vietnamese air force and navy have been destroyed, Chinese battleships can bombard the Vietnamese island garrisons until they surrender. And without any air force or navy, Vietnam cannot attack Chinese garrisons on these islands after China re-occupy them.

As China attack and destroy the Vietnamese air force and navy, the Vietnamese army might launch an attack into Guangxi, China. Therefore, it is a good and necessary precaution to deploy Chinese troops in the border area to trap and destroy any attacking Vietnamese invaders.

As Vietnam and the Philippines are stepping up and increasing the number of islands they occupy and the activities to explore for oil and other resources, China can use this as the reason to declare the peace agreement null and void and give them ultimatums to get out of Chinese sovereign islands. At the expiration of the ultimatums, China should just automatically go into war and destroy their air forces and navies and retake Chinas sovereign islands.

Time is not on China's side under the status quo. The longer Vietnam occupies the islands the more they can argue their sovereignty due to effective occupation and control. They can justifiably argue that since China took no forceful actions against their illegal occupation of Chinese sovereign territories, it must be due to the fact that China acquiesced to their occupation and give up on China's claim of sovereignty. And China's argument that it did not attack due to considerations of peace and benevolence would not be accepted by the majority of the international community because that is a ridiculous argument. Also as Vietnam continues to get more fighters and frigates and submarines, it will cost more in equipments and lives for China to destroy their air force and navy. In the end, it is unrealistic to expect Vietnam to automatically leave the Chinese islands. The realistic choices are war or giving up. Since giving up on Chinese sovereign islands is no option the only remaining option is to go to war.

As China steps up preparation for war, Vietnam will surely show some signs of backing down. But this is surely just a ploy to play for time as it gets more fighters and naval vessels from Russia which will increase the cost for China to go to war against them. Therefore, China must make the decision to go to war now. There is simply no other choice.

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China preparing for war aginst Vietnam? 2011-08-15 13:36 #2

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本论坛关联阅读:

拖延解决南沙问题的逻辑必然后果
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强盛 威严 博爱 之中国

China preparing for war aginst Vietnam? 2011-08-15 18:32 #3

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一直非常担忧周边国家有可能突然核化, 这也是当初我在主贴中极力鼓动中国尽早解决南沙争端的重要原因之一.

除了已经突然核化的印度与朝鲜, 长久来看, 中国周边还有可能突然核化的就是越南与韩国, 再次是日本. 拖延行动, 只能使南沙问题越来越难解决. 令人焦虑的是, 事情正朝着我们所预见的不幸的方向迅速发展.


All the logic points to the need for China to settle this problem quickly by military force. Furthermore, Vietnam is getting tens of billions of dollars' worth of oil that should rightfully belongs to China. I just don't understand why this paralyzing fear of going to war against such a small country. It is almost like the Chinese government think that going to war against Vietnam will cause Chinese economy to collapse or that China will end up having to fight the entire world. This is not likely because nobody will help Vietnam to fight China. And fighting Vietnam will not cost China much resources if China limits its war to destroying Vietnam's air force and navy. Of course, if China wants to attack and occupy the entire Vietnam, then it will require millions of soldiers and trillions of yuan of materiel.

I hope China will go to war in the autumn and settle this problem once and for all. There is simply no other solution. Since war is inevitable, it should be fought as soon as possible. And cutting off Vietnam's access to oil will deny it of funding for its nuclear program. Russia won't help Vietnam for free. Therefore, no oil means no nuclear weapons.

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