南沙群岛的风云再起，中国动一下越南又如何！ 2007-11-06 23:04 #1
南沙群岛的风云再起，中国动一下越南又如何！ 2011-06-17 10:18 #9
南沙群岛的风云再起，中国动一下越南又如何！ 2011-06-18 11:37 #13
南沙群岛的风云再起，中国动一下越南又如何！ 2011-06-21 13:05 #14
南沙群岛的风云再起，中国动一下越南又如何！ 2011-07-12 06:10 #16
China's GDP is 40 trillion yuan. Based on 6.45 yuan per dollar it is $6.2 trillion; based on 8.27 yuan per dollar like it was in 2005 it is $4.8 trillion and less than Japan; based on 3 yuan per dollar of real purchasing power parity value it is $13.3 trillion and almost as big as the American GDP. China is consuming 25% to 90% of the world's entire consumption of aluminum, steel, coal, cement, rare earth elements, etc. but is producing only less than 10% of the world's GDP while the income for the majority of the Chinese people who are the farmers is still less than $800 which is the international poverty level. The reason why China is consuming so much and yet still leave most of its people in poverty is due to the excessive exports which have made a few Chinese very rich while leaving most of the people grindingly poor. This is the same as the excessive of export of silk in the Qing Dynasty which enriched a few silk exporters while impoverished the vast majority of the farmers who produced the silk.
It is irrelevant that China's sea border is very close to the countries in the S. China Sea. Actually, it is not so very close anyway, even at the closest proximity to Palawan of the Philippines the distance between China's territorial island is still almost 100 nautical miles away. Furthermore, there is no basis in international law that says proximity is reason for determining sovereignty. China's soverign territory can be just 3 miles from other countries and it would still be China's sovereign territory. Furthermore, some Philippine islands are hundreds of miles from the Filipino main islands but are literally just a couple of miles from Malaysia's coast. Therefore, it is nonsense to say that China should give up its sovereign territories just because they are too close to other countries and make them "恼火". Such ideas just rob the rightful territories of the Chinese while other countries simply disregard it. It saddens me that there such stupid Chinese who are willing to give away their heritage for some misguided sense of justice that is not even recognized by the international law; and which every country disregard.
Cayman Island belongs to UK. Yet Cayman is less than 200 nm from Cuba while UK is thousands of miles away. You cannot say since Cayman is closer to Cuba therefore it should belong to Cuba. Therefore, the sovereignty of Cayman is determined by historical evidence and not by proximity. And it is nonsensical to say whatever country is closest to an island must possess it. Nobody in the world except guofujia believes such nonsense.
Historical evidence is the justification for determining sovereignty. Of course, China must have historical evidence to justify its claim of sovereignty over any part of its territories. Neither can other countries justify their claim of sovereignty without historical evidence. Historical evidence is how international court decide the question of sovereignty. It just shows the ignorance of fuguojia to dismiss historical evidence so carelessly. Which makes me wonder who this fuguojia really is. I think he is more likely to be some foreign agent than a normal patriotic Chinese.
The determination of sovereignty in the eye of the international law does not depend on "无谓的口舌之争" but on verifiable "历史渊源" historical evidence such as maps, treaties, conventions, etc. In terms of these historical evidence China has more than any other countries. Therefore, either fuguojia knows absolutely nothing about the international court decision process for sovereignty or he is some traitor or foreign agent who try to trick the Chinese people into abandoning their rightful claim of sovereignty by riduculing the abundant historical evidence by calling it needless verbal squabble.
In the end, China has the most rightful claim of sovereignty over S. China Sea and must as a matter of honor protect it. As to how to protect it, it is very simple. China has overwhelming military power over any or all other countries. Just go in there and blow them away. There is no need to be gentle with these invaders. China fought the Japanese with guns. So China can again fight these invaders with guns. In any case, Malaysia and Brunei will not fight China. The Philippines has no navy to speak of. Just sink their flag ship which is a 70 years old American destroyer with a single missile and the war against the Philippines will be over. The Philippines has no money to buy a modern navy. Nor can the Filipinos be able to operate a modern navy due to its corruption and lack of technical ability. The only real enemy is Vietnam. But Vietnam is much smaller than China in terms of economy or population. Vietnam's economy is only around $100 billion with a population of less than 100 million. Vietnam's air force consists of some 54 Su-30 and Su-27 with another 35 on order. China has more than 600 equivalent fighters. Therefore, it is to China's advantage to blow away Vietnam as soon as possible before it expands its air force. Once the fighting is over, Vietnam cannot sustain a long term war against China. It's economy will simply collapse and the Vietnamese people will ultimate rebel against their own government and ask for peace with China so that their country can develop in peace. And then peace will return to S. China Sea.
China must be willing to solve the problem with force. In this case only force can solve the problem. And fighting Vietnam will not hinder China's economic progress at all. China may lose 50 fighters which can be replaced with around $1.5 billion which China can easily afford since its forex reserve is more than $3 trillion. The cost to Vietnam will be much heavier proportionally than to China at about 60 to 1. Therefore, China can keep fighting while Vietnam will soon be collapsed totally. Unless China got defeated by Vietnam's little air force. In which case the Chinese government has much to answer to the Chinese people.
南沙群岛的风云再起，中国动一下越南又如何！ 2011-07-12 13:54 #18
» 2011-07-11 17:38
Defeating Vietnam is not difficult. Just blow away its air force and navy and it will not be able to occupy Chinese islands in the Nansha Archipalago. As I posted before Vietnam has only some 50 to 60 Su-27 and Su-30. It is also buying some 30 more from Russia. So the sooner China attack Vietnam the easier it is. Or to put it in reverse, the longer China waits the harder it will be to attack Vietnam and the heavier the cost. So give Vietnam an ultimatum to get out of Nansha A. say by the end of July, 2011. And attack it on all fronts after a general declaration of war.
China should start with a missile barrage on Vietnam's air bases to destroy as much of its Su-27 and Su-30 as possible. Then it should follow up with attacks by J-10 and Su-27 and Su-30 and other UAV and bombers to mop up the remaining Su-27 and Su-30. At the same time China should attack all Vietnamese navy. Hit all the surface ships and hunt down all its submarines. Blow up all its naval bases. China should also destroy all Vietnam's infrastructures such as bridges and all its high value industrial and commercial facilites and assets. If China goes to war then it should be all out war. This should be like America's attack on Iraq with shock and awe.
Once the Vietnamese air force and navy have been destroyed, China can call on the Vietnamese garrisons on the occupied islands to surrender. If they don't surrender then China should attack it with missiles first and then with guns from battleships. If the garrisons are heavily guarded then there is no need to sacrifice a lot of Chinese soldiers to attack it. Just wait and starve them to death.
Once the islands have been retaken, then they can be garrisoned by Chinese soldiers. If the Vietnamese air force and navy have been totally destroyed, then they cannot attack the Chinese garrisons on the islands. If Vietnam does not surrender, then the war can go on. China must blockade Vietnam and strangle its economy. Without any foreign exchange, Vietnam cannot buy any fighters or ships. China should also block any delivery of arms to Vietnam. If the US or Russia tried to deliver arms to Vietnam, then China can use force to stop them. Or China can use economic policies to discourage them. For instance, if the US tried to deliver submarines to Vietnam, China can kick out GM or Walmart from China. I don't think the US will sacrifice GM just to save Vietnam. China must use its power both economic and military wisely.
After 10 to 20 years, Vietnam will be totally devasted. Its people will then overthrow their government and beg for peace with China. The cost to China will be minimal. Its economy is 60 times bigger than Vietnam. It can spend $5 billion a year to replace its fighters and naval ships. Vietnam cannot spend even $1 billion without bankrupting its economy especially if it doesn't have any exports to earn the foreign exchange. Vietnam cannot buy and fighters or naval ships if it didn't have any foreign exchange to pay for them.
China must mobilize its army to guard the land border with Vietnam in case it attacks on land. But I think it is easy to stop the Vietnamese army from attacking China. In the end, fighting Vietnam will give the Chinese military invaluable experience in fighting battles. This will be invaluable training for the Chinese military to test their planes and missiles and ships and especially their generals and soldiers. If the planes have any problems then these problems can be quickly corrected to make the Chinese weapons superior. America keep fighting wars for the purpose of training their military and testing their weapons. China should do the same.
Especially as China's exports decline following the decline of Japan and the West, it will need to expand its domestic economy. Military spending will be a good way to provide employment for tens of millions of Chinese workers over the medium terms of 5 to 10 years. As China's economy doubles over the next 10 years to 80 trillion yuan, it can allocate 2% of its GDP or 1.6 trillion yuan for military budget. It can spend 300 billion yuan per year for procuring fighters, missiles, submarines, etc. For example, it can spend 50 billion yuan for fighters. If each J-20, J-16, and J-18 cost 150 million yuan then it can buy more than 300 per years. It is easy for China to maintain a war against Vietnam indefinitely while it continue to develop technologically and economically to enable a rapidly expanding military.
南沙群岛的风云再起，中国动一下越南又如何！ 2011-07-12 14:05 #19
As I said before, it is easy to defend the islands once Vietnam's air force and navy have been totally destroyed. It is a mistake to just fight the Vietnamese to occupy the islands while leaving Vietnam mainland free to increase its economy and military and launch endless attacks on the islands.
Therefore, the way to safeguard the islands is by destroying the Vietnam mainland in terms of both the air force and navy as well as in its economy until Vietnam has no money to buy weapons with which to attack the islands.
If China merely retake the islands and then try to defend it against attacks from Vietnam then it will suffer a lot of losses. China must not make the mistake of trying to occupy Vietnam mainland. This will be like America trying to occupy Vietnam or Iraq or Afghanistan. China can cripple Vietnam's economy simply by destroying its infrastructure and prevent it from buying fighters and naval ships and missiles to attack Chinese islands or mainland.
南沙群岛的风云再起，中国动一下越南又如何！ 2011-07-14 21:11 #20
以上说的非常好. 南沙之争, 不能象越南希望的那样只局限于南海, 他们可利用地利的优势占尽中国的便宜. 中国应该让其明白, 如果胆敢在南海做得过火, 中国完全可以轻易地从陆地上修理它. 关于这一点, 本论坛已有专门论述, 参见:
强盛 威严 博爱 之中国
南沙群岛的风云再起，中国动一下越南又如何！ 2011-07-17 16:40 #22
Given the current situation, I don't think it is possible to induce the invading countries to leave peacefully. The more China try to induce them to develop jointly the more they will think they can take everything. They think China will not dare to fight them anyway. This is why war is inevitable. The Chinese government think that if it fought one invader, then all the invaders will unite with the US and Japan as well as Australia and UK to attack China. Then India will join in and maybe even S. Korea too. I think this is highly unlikely because none of these countries can afford to fight. Japan, US, UK, S. Korea and other NATO countries are all suffering from economic recession. Australia is making a lot of money exporting minerals to China. And India must always look out for Pakistan while S. Korea must look out for N. Korea. Furthermore, the Philippines and Malaysia are not allies since they have territorial disputes between themselves over Sabah. And Malaysia is simply too weak and cowardly to fight. As well, Malaysia has a lot of internal problems with the Chinese and Indians in Malaysia who are about to vote out the dominant Malays in the next election. Also Malaysia has territorial disputes with Thailand. And Philippines is too weak and corrupt to fight a modern war with China. And the US will never spent hundreds of billions of dollars just to help out Philippines.
So in the end, the only country that will fight is Vietnam.
China's GDP is more than 60 times that of Vietnam. And with greater emphasis on internal development, China can continue to grow rapidly and double over the next 10 years. So by 2040 China's economy can be 120 times bigger than Vietnam. And China can easily suppress Vietnam by destroying its air force and navy and industries and maintain a naval blockade until its economy is strangled. In the end the Vietnamese people will rebel against their own government and peace can be restored. This is using China's bigger economy to defeat Vietnam. The only thing China should not do is to try to occupy Vietnam. That would be a mistake that America had found out.